A once and future king

Newman: a future local MP?

Here is an interesting possible twist to Queensland politics in the aftermath of what is looking like an LNP bloodbath that should see a dramatic resurgence of Labor and Premier Newman losing his seat of Ashgrove this Saturday.
Said William Bowe in Crikey: "Whichever way preferences are sliced, present indications are that the overall swing will be well beyond Newman’s 5.7% margin."
And here is where its gets interesting, could Newman have a cunning plan?

In an opinion article by Anne Twomey, Professor of Constitutional Law at University of Sydney looked at the legal framework and concluded:

"In the short term, ... it would be possible for a premier to remain in office, without holding a seat, if his or her government held the confidence of the lower house and the premier was seeking election in a by-election.
"This assumes that a compliant MP would resign to permit Newman to run for his or her seat and that Newman was prepared to do so."    

Take your pick of possible safe seats that may be targeted. The ABC's swing calculator is probably a good place to start. Local electorates Cleveland and Redlands are regarded as safe on a current margins of 7.3% and 10.3% respectively and could be targets if either of the LNP candidates, if they win, were "compliant" and resigned.

As I said: interesting.

Redlanders line up to cast early votes in Victoria Point,
They ran the traditional gauntlet of  party faithful pushing how to vote cards.

Stop start motoring for Redlands

South of Benfer Road is becoming
 more of a traffic snarl

Just so it won't be lost...  Outgoing State MP for Redlands , Peter Dowling before the current LNP Government landslided its way to power in 2013 wrote on his website:

Traffic lights confirmed for Anita Street intersection - another sweet victory.. 

LNP State Member for Redlands Peter Dowling today confirmed that Labor has announced that traffic lights are going in at the Anita Street and Cleveland-Redland Bay Roads intersection at Redland Bay.

Mr Dowling said that after a tireless fight and campaign to have the intersection upgraded and his continued badgering on behalf of residents to the Minister for Main Roads, the fight has been won and the impact from the local community should be nothing short of victory celebrations.

"This section of road has caused a great deal of trouble for Main Roads. Between the failure to deliver the duplication from South Street to Boundary Road in the late 90’s and early 2000’s and skimping on the road surface medium creating a noise problem, but now the tired Labor Government have finally come to their senses for the safety of the Redland Bay community." Mr Dowling said.

The Government announced today that the intersection design is already underway and works are planned to start early next year. The project is expected to be completed by May 2012, weather permitting.

"I will be requesting a copy of the plans from the Minister to ensure that the best outcome for the Anita Street intersection is delivered."

 "The Redlands has been so neglected by the Labor Government over the past 20 years and I can now say that the many Letters to the Minister, numerous Questions on Notice, Petition, several Public Meetings and raising this issue over and again in Parliament has paid off with the community getting safer roads that they deserve."

 "I also have to thank the residents of the Anita Street community who have been proactive and an enormous support in collecting signatures for the petition and setting up the public meetings." stated Mr Dowling.

 A CanDo LNP Government will ensure that Queensland has safer roads and stop the excuses and delays.

Don't look for links to this article from the media releases page of the website, They have been removed and only six of the many articles written by Peter Dowling are presented in the menu.)
But to continue, shortly after the CanDo crowd were installed the project was subjected to excuses and delays. It was put on hold. The Redland Times had the story on 3 May 2012.
Now, on the eve of what is becoming a tight election, the project is back on. See another article in Redland City Bulletin.

Hard sell at Pipeclay Creek on election eve promising four lanes
...if Redlanders vote LNP

Locals are not impressed with the key campaigner for the lights, Leeann Lillicrap pointing out that "the promise was nothing more than vote buying."
According to the Bulletin writeup  the State Minister for Transport, Craig Emerson said the project, would only occur if the LNP was returned to government.
Meanwhile, traffic continues to grow and so do the accidents.

Island bright sparks beat electricity price boost

It was predicted and it has happen: the cost of electricity is going through the roof. The price freeze bought in by the Queensland LNP government has been crushed by a massive increase this year.
The draft determination of the Queensland Competition Authority relased this week forecasts

•  21.4% price increase for the common household tariff (Tariff 11) and 
• 15.7% for small business customers (Tariff 20) across Queensland.

From the reaction of the Queensland Government lead on this matter, Tim Nicolls, you would have though that this was something new and unpredictiable.  The fact is that we have known that the prices would rise for many years. The Australian The Australian Energy Market Commission predicted all of this in its 2010 paper on future price rises so everyone, the Governments, the wholesalers, the retailers and the consumers knew it would happen. The LNP had no hope of shifting the deck chairs around in order to prevent the rise, its freeze promised in the election last year has melted in the face of reality. This reversed the policies of the previous government which was one of alerting us to the trend and gently pushing us, with free usage checks and encouraging solar installation, towards a sustainable use of power.

Here is the Commission's predicted breakup in order of magnitude:

• Distribution services - 41% contribution
• Wholesale electricity -19% contribution
• Retail electricity -14% contribution
• Renewable Energy Target (LRET/SRES) - 11% contribution
• Transmission services - 8% contribution
• Feed-in tariffs - 3% contribution
• Other jurisdictional schemes - 3% contribution

So its the grid and the cost of conventional (read coal-fired powerplants) that are 60% of the increase. The grid is old and needs replacement.  Carbon tax and feed-in tariffs are a small percentage in comparison. 

Although demonized by the entrenched suppliers, renewable energy which includes rooftop solar contributes only 4.5% to additional electricity costs. 

Here on the islands, many did take notice and grabbed the generous subsidies being offered by both the State and Commonwealth to install solar panels on their roofs while they were on offer.  That is why, today, we have the highest density of solar panels in the State and will be somewhat cushioned from the increase later this year.

And the good news is that the cost of putting more solar on your roof is continuing to come down.  The Macquarie Group, one of the most hard headed investors in Australia has pointed out that, based on world trends, rooftop solar is now "unstoppable"  Looking at the German market, the Macquarie experts say:

"ever-increasing prices for domestic and commercial customers as well as rapid solar cost declines have brought on the advent of grid parity for German roofs. Thus, solar installations could continue at a torrid pace”

For once, the islands, thanks to the efforts of people like +Rod Young in organising the big group buys of solar panels a few years back, is well ahead of the curve and laughing all the way to the bank with their canny investment in panels ticking up the kilowatts on our roofs.  What is more we have a bunch of tradies skilled up in the installation and servicing of panels.
Now, if we could only figure a way of getting to all that power when the grid goes off the air like it did a month ago.

Stradbroke poll results faked?

Accurate reporting in the 1980s by the Courier Mail, gave
an accurate portrayal of where the bridge was supposed
to go.  This was later abandoned when the two private
firms who proposed the bridging found that the offering of
land on Stradbroke would not be profitable.

Just after Christmas is known as the silly season in Australian journalism.  A time when the cream of the journalists take leave because there is little real news.  Everyone is on holidays and the second stringers are left to make something out of what scraps of news are available.
At that time beat ups are common and all kinds of diversions--such as hitting the streets to interview anyone and everyone on burning questions are the stuff of the news.  Of late, dubious online polls have become part of the mix.
So it was no surprise that when Queensland Education Minister, John-Paul Langbroek suggested in an unguarded moment,  a bridge to Stradbroke might have to be reconsidered in the future, the Courier Mail went to town.
Strong denials came from local member Peter Dowling, the responsible Queensland Transport Minister, Scott Emerson, and the Mayor of Redlands, Karen Williams that such a course was not on the cards but the bridge fanatics ran away with it.

January poll by Courier Mail

The Courier Mail's online poll initially found a balance of for and against but suddenly, a few days after the start of the poll, the number of people wanting the bridge exceeded 17000 while the no vote remain virtually unchanged.
I was attacked at the time on the BayJournal for daring to suggest that the results may have been corrupt.  One said:

your post smacks of bias and paranoia. When are you going to admit the majority obviously supports a bridge and the ongoing infrastructure it will facilitate. You have used polls before to justify your argument, but only if they promote your opinion. I say you are only seeing what you want to see.

Well now we have proof that polls run by News Limited have been adulterated.
Tonight on MediaWatch, the ABC's well respected media watchdog, showed that News Limited has not only been hacked and many polls have been falsified but that it has not done anything about them when the issue was pointed out.  See the full segment with supporting evidence here. 
Just because polls are published by a major media organisation, doesn't make them true.

Storms: a "Titanic" moment?

A false sense of security

The usual monthly Russell Island Association meeting on Saturday was not a happy one.
We were all smarting from the storms and particularly from the loss of power for four days but most of all from not knowing what was going on.

It was not supposed to be like this: the power outages of the past were supposed to have been fixed by the building of a substation on the island. 

Many people on Russell had a Titanic experience.

It wasn't just the smelly mounds of frozen meat and other food being taken to the dump or the trees being ripped up: it was not knowing what was going on.

Unlike the mainland where the radio stations were keeping householders reasonably informed about local problems, we had nothing or worse, misinformation about when and what services would come on line:

• Russell Island's only retail food store, closed suddenly when the blackout came in an effort to save the cold stock.  No generator backup and no explanations.
• Without power and no hand pumps, the only service station was closed too. Thus there was a wild rush to the mainland to pick up more fuel for generators.
• We soon ran through what ice was available from the local liquor store
• The Bowls Club remained open because it had by some miracle power on.  Those who knew were able to find refuge there and contributed to a giant cook out to keep people fed.  But many were in the dark and assumed that it, like most of the rest of the islands was shut down.  
• RSL Club, that was shut tight and was not online until a day after power was restored. Up until the power cut, it had been a rallying point with the big screen television giving news of what was happening in the wider world.
• It was next to impossible to find out when and where ferries might arrive so people could not plan shopping trips to the mainland--even if they could get there through the downed trees and powerlines.

On Macleay, it was nowhere near as bad because at least one of the foodstores had a generator and the Council was able to keep it running with a delivery of fuel. 

But the biggest problem was just not knowing. No disaster recovery centre had been set up for the island. No emergency routines had been put in place despite appeals for many years for some clear plans to be put in place. 

It would be easy to blame the victims here: every household should have had enough to see them through but we are not talking about a normal population here.  The population has doubled on Russell in the last ten years and seen an influx of urban dwellers rather than people used to the rigours of isolation that the older residents were prepared for. If you hadn't noticed it is almost impossible now to buy a phone that will work without being plugged in.  Smartphones died as batteries petered out. Even if you did get through to the electricity people you were given wildly optimistic times for power restorations.

And there are aspects that are only just coming to light: many of the newly installed and mandatory household sewerage plants require power to operate--how much damage has been done to them and consequently to the environment is not known. 

This was systemic failure.  We didn't hit an iceberg but we were victims of the same kind of thinking both from authorise and at a personal level.  When the Titanic went down, enquiries found the deficiencies and safety at sea was vastly improved.  Will we learn the same kind of lesson from this minor disaster or will it all be forgotten until the next time?

The only retail establishment open on Russell after the storm was the local bottleshop.

Council and State send teams to the islands

Mobile outreach squads have been sent to the islands to help people get assistance. Yesterday hundreds heard through the grapevine that help was arriving and besieged the teams.
Their first priority was food but the teams came only with forms to  fillout.
Island organisations are asking why the disaster recovery plans promised over two years ago following the floods did not seem to be in place.
This is the official press release:

Mobile Outreach Teams from the Queensland Government Department of Communities will be operating again today on Macleay and Russell Islands. There will also... be representatives at the centres from Lifeline, Red Cross and Redland City Council.

Russell Island
Time: 10am-6pm
Location: Bay Islands Community Centre, 55 Jackson Road.

Macleay Island
Time: 10am- 5.30pm
Location: Macleay Island Community Centre, Cnr Southsea Terrace & High Central Road.

All Redland residents experiencing hardship can contact the Department of Communities on 1800 173 349 or visit the Queensland Government website. http://www.qld.gov.au/community/disasters-emergencies/financial-assistance/

Please note assistance is provided under an application and assessment basis only managed by the Queensland Government

Peace returns

Dawn breaks on a new week. The Australia Day weekend storms that wrought destruction on South East Queensland are replaced by what promises to be a magnificent dawn. Yes,  on the Southern Moreton Bay Islands, there is much to be done but the electricity is being restored, the boats are being rescued from the mangroves, the barges and passenger ferries are back in operation and the local fire brigades and SES have done a cracker job in clearing the debris from the roads. We did escape the worst.

Cruiser up on Redland Bay shoreline

Someone improvised with found containers to clear some of the way.

Sad. An adolescent Morten Bay Fig up rooted.

Pathway now rocky presents a big job for Council worker

Another

And another

And another

And another

And another

And another

And even more

Of course it isn't all sweetness and light, travelling in from Russell Island to Victoria  Point following the shoreline revealed much destructive force from the ex-tropical cyclone. " Not as bad as '74" I was assured by an old resident on the ferry.
Still, I counted nine yachts and cruisers beached on the islands and along the mainland. The normally fast shaded cycle and walking route up to the Redland Bay Golf Club was a miserable lumpiness of broken trees, seaweed, plastic bottles and  large stones flung up by the storm surge and hard onshore wind. The pleasant little playground and fitness area was a mess with its shade cloths shredded and trees uprooted.